Bright Growth Prospects
Addressing parliamentarians in Brazzaville on November 28, President Denis Sassou N’Guesso stated that the economy of Congo-Brazzaville is projected to grow at a resilient rate of 3.6% in 2026, marking a decisive turning point after several difficult years.
The head of state linked this forecast to the structural reforms undertaken by his government, emphasizing that growth is increasingly driven by the non-oil sector, whose renewed vigor extends from agriculture and forestry to telecoms and urban services, gradually reducing dependence on crude oil exports.
Although the projected pace remains below the peaks of the commodity boom of the 2000s, officials assert that diversified expansion is more sustainable, protecting public finances from external shocks and laying the groundwork for new industries and jobs across the ten departments.
Non-Oil Sector Drives Recovery
Data shared during the speech shows that non-oil activities contributed to nearly two-thirds of the estimated growth in 2023, with cassava processing, sawn wood, and cement production recording double-digit gains thanks to targeted tax incentives and the gradual rehabilitation of access roads to rural markets.
Private operators report that the recovery is also visible at the Pointe-Noire container terminal, where traffic has increased, and in Brazzaville’s tech incubators, where startups benefit from reduced power outages and faster internet provided by new fiber-optic connections.
Inflation Slows While Debt Declines
Inflation, which had surged after the war in Ukraine disrupted import routes, is reportedly decelerating, although at 5.2%, it remains above the CEMAC convergence ceiling of 3%, according to figures cited by the president during the joint session.
Regarding debt, Denis Sassou N’Guesso reported that the Treasury’s cash management policy has enabled the reprofiling of domestic arrears and a gradual reduction in external commitments, improving the sustainability indicators monitored by international partners and rating agencies.
Eurobond Success Signals Investor Confidence
The clearest sign of renewed confidence came earlier this year when Brazzaville successfully launched a sovereign Eurobond after more than two decades of absence from global financial markets, an operation hailed as proof of investor appetite for Congolese debt.
The proceeds helped refinance short-term securities and will partly finance priority infrastructure, thereby freeing up fiscal space for social programs and strengthening ties with multilateral lenders monitoring budget execution under the Extended Credit Facility.
Banking Network Expands Inland
The financial sector is following suit. The Bank of Central African States, already present in Brazzaville, Pointe-Noire, Ouesso, and Oyo, plans a fifth branch in Dolisie, whose foundation stone was laid during the president’s recent tour of the Niari region.
Local entrepreneurs anticipate that closer access to credit and clearing services will boost trade corridors linking the coastal hub to the Congolese hinterland and neighboring countries like Gabon and Cabinda, while also facilitating diaspora remittance flows.
New Refinery Planned for Pointe-Noire
Beyond balance sheet cleanup, the government is targeting supply bottlenecks that fuel inflationary pressure. The flagship project is a new refinery in the Pointe-Noire special economic zone, to be built by the Chinese firm Atlantique Petrochimie on a modular basis.
An initial capacity of 1.5 million tons per year is expected to increase to 5 million, sufficient to cover domestic demand and export surpluses to landlocked CEMAC partners, according to technical specifications unveiled during the project’s promotion in Beijing last month.
Once operational, the plant is expected to mitigate recurrent gasoline shortages that have caused long queues at service stations and sporadic price spikes.
Measures to Protect Consumers
To strengthen purchasing power, Denis Sassou N’Guesso instructed the Ministry of Commerce to intensify inspections against speculative hoarding. Teams will monitor wholesalers and retail outlets, with penalties for fraud intended to keep essential goods affordable in all markets, from Makoua to Madingou.
This call echoes previous directives but comes amid heightened public scrutiny of food prices, giving the cabinet a renewed mandate to coordinate logistics, liberalize import licenses if necessary, and publish benchmark price lists to prevent panic buying.
Regional Cooperation within CEMAC
Officials emphasize that Congo’s trajectory cannot be isolated from the Central African monetary union. By adhering to convergence criteria and synchronizing customs reforms, Brazzaville aims to achieve greater regional spillover effects, including smoother movement of goods along the Douala-Brazzaville corridor.
Economists at Marien Ngouabi University state that such coordination could increase overall CEMAC growth by half a percentage point, provided member states control inflation and accelerate digital customs systems that reduce clearance times at border posts.
Digital Finance and Youth Optimism
For Congo, the regional momentum could reinforce domestic reforms and attract diversified investment, transforming the projected 3.6% figure from a target into a springboard toward higher, more inclusive growth.
Mobile money operators, encouraged by the central bank’s new regulatory sandbox, are deploying low-fee wallets, offering small farmers alternatives to cash and further integrating rural producers into national supply chains.
Youth groups interviewed outside parliament said they welcome these prospects but hope the ongoing reforms will quickly translate into internships, micro-credits, and vocational training matching the skills needed for emerging sectors.