With less than a week to go until the decisive October 25th deadline, the electoral campaign is under close surveillance but remains generally calm, although punctuated here and there by brief, contained skirmishes.
In Abidjan as well as in the rest of the country, the mood is one of contained tension and a feverish wait for election day, which, it is hoped, will not contradict this apparent calm. Until next Saturday, the ruling party, highly confident and better organized, holds the upper hand, leaving its opponents to debate with animosity and tear each other apart between two camps that, for now, nothing seems able to reconcile.
On one side, there is the hardline faction, adamantly refusing a “fourth term” for incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, and on the other, a more pragmatic and clear-sighted camp that has chosen the ballot box over street protests. Those who refuse an election with Alassane Ouattara as a candidate continue to march in anger, while their opposition counterparts have chosen the path of realism and the ballot box, betting on stability over disruption.
In this game of political billiards, it’s fair to say the radical opposition is struggling, especially since its ball is barely hitting anything and its cries now resonate weakly in most major urban areas. And if the game is almost up for the hardliners, the same can be said for the moderate opposition candidates running in the presidential election.
Avoiding Awakening Old Demons
The latter, even if they hold few illusions that the election result will be, barring a radical shift, largely favorable to Alassane Ouattara, likely reason that, failing to stop the train of power, it’s better to find a seat on it.
Knowing they stand to gain more by sitting at the table of the future victor rather than remaining outside howling with the wolves and chanting hollow slogans, some candidates have preferred the gamble of the ballot box to that of chaos. They have openly stated this, calling on their supporters not to associate with troublemakers who dream of an insurrectional movement in Côte d’Ivoire.
This choice, deemed opportunistic by some, aligns with the logic of a country wanting to avoid awakening old demons. It stems from a political calculation that will likely yield some dividends and ministerial portfolios after the inevitable victory of their RHDP opponent.
These former actors of the national tragedy have, undoubtedly, learned from the past and seem to have chosen the path of moderation and pragmatism, as if to prove their redemption and political maturity to their supporters and compatriots. The ruling party will undoubtedly owe them a great debt, and so much the better if it serves to durably establish a climate of peace and stability in this pivotal West African country.