In a historic shift for Central Africa, opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary has won Cameroon’s October 12 presidential election, ending Paul Biya’s 43-year rule. Preliminary tallies compiled by independent observers and opposition coalitions indicate that Tchiroma Bakary, 76, secured approximately 61% of the vote, compared to 35% for the incumbent president, based on data covering over 75% of polling stations.
The African Union Election Observation Mission (AUEOM) and local civic groups monitored the election in the bustling streets of Yaoundé and the markets of Garoua. Despite isolated incidents, voting proceeded with relative calm, contrasting with past violence. “The Cameroonian people have chosen renewal,” declared Tchiroma Bakary before a jubilant crowd in Douala, calling for serenity while awaiting official results.
The Union for Change 2025 coalition, comprising over 50 opposition parties and civil society organizations, proclaimed Tchiroma’s victory based on its own parallel tabulations, showing overwhelming margins in urban centers like Yaoundé and Douala, and even stronger results in his northern stronghold of Garoua. Viral social media images, showing tallies such as 220 votes for Tchiroma versus 1 for Biya at a polling station in Regland, reinforce the idea of a landslide. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC) has not yet conceded, but sources speak of quiet resignation.
A former Minister of Employment who broke with Biya last June, Tchiroma capitalized on public frustration over the management of oil wealth and youth unemployment. His rallies attracted tens of thousands of people, supported by figures like Maurice Kamto, who was excluded from the race. “No one predicted this wave,” stated an observer in the West.
Behind the scenes, Paris is playing a pivotal role. According to diplomatic sources, the French government is engaged in discreet negotiations with the Biya regime to ensure a peaceful transition. In exchange for safe passage and clemency for high-ranking ministers—including guarantees against legal prosecution—France is pushing for a smooth transfer of power. Senior French military advisors were urgently dispatched to Yaoundé to persuade Biya and the President of the Constitutional Court to accept the results, thus avoiding a coup or a contested annulment.
This proactivity is explained by the regional situation. “We don’t want to relive the Sahel in Cameroon,” stated a special advisor during a closed-door meeting. Similarly, the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs insisted: “An orderly transition with Tchiroma will allow us to rebuild a more balanced relationship.” The Élysée is already preparing a message of congratulations to the Cameroonian people for a “peaceful and credible” election, while urging Biya to “honor the popular will.”
Tchiroma, who has pledged to release Ambazonia’s political prisoners and open negotiations for a lasting federal solution to the Anglophone conflict, is viewed in Paris as a reliable partner for easing tensions. “This is a reset: immediate amnesty, then inclusive dialogue,” confided an advisor.
Other African leaders are monitoring developments. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu is closely watching the events.