Global trade exceeded expectations in early 2025, that is, before the implementation of tariffs, according to the latest report from the World Trade Organization. But once the shock of the taxes passes, the outlook could darken.
The fact is rare enough to be highlighted: the World Trade Organization had to change its estimates several times due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of taxes on global trade.
Ultimately, growth of 2.4% is forecast for this year. This progress is largely due to products related to artificial intelligence, as well as the surge in overall U.S. imports in anticipation of the tariff increases.
“The resilience of trade in 2025 is largely due to the stability offered by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” commented the WTO Director-General. “Yet, complacency is not an option. The current disruptions to the global trading system are a call to action for nations to rethink trade and jointly establish stronger foundations leading to greater prosperity for all,” she added.
The Shadow of U.S. Tariffs
However, with the gradual implementation of U.S. tariffs, their effects are expected to be felt more and more. The WTO forecasts that merchandise trade could slow to just 0.5% in 2026.
Since returning to power in January, the U.S. administration has implemented, in several waves, new customs surcharges on products entering the United States. This administration has imposed a base tariff of 10% on all countries, with much higher rates for a number of them whose exports to the U.S. exceed American imports from those countries.
The stated goal is to revive U.S. manufacturing through trade policies, which represent a shift in the U.S. approach aimed at maintaining an open economy.