The 2015 Congo-Brazzaville finance bill shows a deceleration. Trees never grow to the sky. Congo-Brazzaville’s budget is made of the same wood.
Unfortunately, Congo-Brazzaville’s economic policymakers and legislators were carried away by the illusion of growth, exclusively driven by oil production. Will they return to greater realism given the global economic situation? The World Bank forecasts Africa’s GDP growth at 5.2% between 2015 and 2016 compared to 4.6% in 2014. Congo-Brazzaville is counting on 8% GDP growth after brandishing a 10% GDP growth rate in 2012 like a trophy, while the Bretton Woods institutions projected 7.8% GDP.
Increase
In seven years, Congo-Brazzaville’s budget tripled; rising from 1300 billion CFA francs in 2007 to 4000 billion in 2014, later reduced to 3800 billion following a budget adjustment. The 2008 budget was 1671 billion CFA francs, an increase of 294.093 billion CFA francs compared to 2007. The 2012 state budget was set at 3,645 billion 575 million CFA francs in revenue and expenditure, compared to 3,006 billion 257 million CFA francs in 2011, representing a 21% increase (600 billion in absolute value).
Downward Trend
The 2013 budget was set with revenue at 4,117,397,000,000 CFA francs and expenditure at 3,020,201,000,000 CFA francs. After execution, the final revenue amount for the 2013 general budget was set at 3,345,532,779,448 CFA francs, representing a collection rate of 81.25%. For expenditure, the 2013 general budget was set at 2,717,139,660,914 CFA francs, with a satisfactory execution rate of 89.97%. The 2013 budget execution resulted in a surplus of 628,393,118,534 CFA francs.
For the 2015 fiscal year, Congo-Brazzaville’s draft budget was set with revenue at 3,639,834,000,000 CFA francs and expenditure at 3,453,030,000,000 CFA francs. This draft budget is expected to generate a projected budget surplus of approximately 186,804,000,000 CFA francs. This is undeniable. Since 2013, there has been a downward trend in Congo-Brazzaville’s budget, using Karl Marx’s expression, falling from 4100 billion CFA francs in 2013 to 3600 billion CFA francs in 2015 on an annual basis. Despite a slight decrease, Congo-Brazzaville’s budget remains among the largest in Central African countries.